EXHIBIT
13
An
Analysis of the Origins of the COVID-19 Pandemic Interim Report
Senate
Committee on Health Education, Labor and Pensions Minority Oversight Staff
October
2022
Table
of Contents
Foreword 3
Introduction 4
Section
I: Analysis of Natural Zoonotic Origins Hypothesis 5
a. Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak
Differs from Previous Natural Zoonotic Spillovers 7
b. Missing Evidence of a Natural Zoonotic
Spillover 10
c. Problems with the Natural Zoonotic
Hypothesis 11
Section
II: Analysis of Research-Related Incident Hypothesis 13
a. Coronavirus Research in Wuhan and at
the Wuhan Institute of Virology 13
b. WIV Research on SARS-related
Coronaviruses with Pandemic Potential 15
c. WIV Biosafety and Biosecurity Patents
and Procurements in 2019 16
d. WIV Biosafety and Biosecurity Events in
2019 17
Section
III: China’s Early COVID-19 Vaccine Development Versus the U.S. Operation Warp
Speed 20
a. U.S. Operation Warp Speed 20
b. China’s COVID-19 Vaccine Development
Program 21
Section
IV: Basis for Assessment that Research-Related Incident is More Likely Origin
of SARS-CoV-2 23
a. Coronavirus Research at the Wuhan
Institute of Virology 23
b. Evidence of Biosafety Failures at the
WIV 24
c. Management and training concerns at the
WIV 24
d. Anomalies in Epidemiology of SARS-COV-2
Outbreak 25
Conclusion 26
Foreword
Over
one million Americans have died from COVID-19 and tens of millions have died
from this virus worldwide. In addition to the tragic loss of life, over the
past three years we have experienced the social, educational, and economic
costs of a global pandemic.
Last
summer, Chair Murray and I announced a bipartisan Health, Education, Labor and
Pensions (HELP) Committee oversight effort into the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the
virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic as part of our effort to address
pandemic preparedness and response programs, and we continue to work together
on that project.
This
is an interim report produced by HELP Committee Minority oversight staff. The
objective was to review publicly available, open-source information to examine
the two prevailing theories of origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: a natural
zoonotic outbreak or a research-related incident. This Senate Health,
Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee Minority oversight staff report
is the product of that review.
Over
the last fifteen months, HELP Committee Minority oversight staff carefully
reviewed several hundred publicly available scientific studies, interviewed
several dozen subject matter experts, and analyzed previous reports and studies
on the possible origins of the virus. I believe that this report provides a
significant contribution to the existing body of evidence and helps establish
parameters for how future analyses should be reviewed.
The
lack of transparency and collaboration from government and public health
officials in the People’s Republic of China with respect to the origins of
SARS-CoV-2 prevents reaching a more definitive conclusion.
With
COVID-19 still in our midst, it is critical that we continue international
efforts to uncover additional information regarding the origins of this deadly
virus. I hope this report will guide the World Health Organization and other
international institutions and researchers as they proceed with planned work to
continue investigating the origins of this virus. Uncovering the answers to
this critical question is imperative to our national and international ability
to ensure that a pandemic of this size and scope does not happen again.
My
ultimate goal with this report is to provide a clearer picture of what we know,
so far, about the origins of SARS-CoV-2 so that we can continue to work
together to be better prepared to respond to future public health threats. I
believe this interim report does just that.
Richard
Burr
United
States Senator
Ranking
Member, U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions
Introduction
Three
years after its emergence in Wuhan, exactly how SARS-CoV-2 first emerged as a
respiratory pathogen capable of sustained human-to-human transmission remains
the subject of active debate.1
Experts
have put forward two dominant theories on the origins of the virus.2
The
first theory is that SARS-CoV-2 is the result of a natural zoonotic spillover.3
The
second theory is that the virus infected humans as a consequence of a
research-related incident.4
Understanding
the virus’s origin is essential to understanding how this outbreak happened,
why detection and reporting systems did not work as anticipated, and to better
prepare for future health threats. This report has reviewed open source,
publicly available information relevant to the origins of the virus to
consolidate additional information that can be contributed to the body of work
investigating the answer to this question.
Establishing
a clear picture of the likely origin of the virus has proven challenging. Since
January 3, 2020, government officials in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)
have prohibited sharing or publishing any information on SARS-CoV-2 without
state review and approval.5
Restrictions
on SARS-CoV-2 information remain in place today and, therefore, any information
on SARS-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 pandemic published by government officials and
scientists in China must be reviewed with these restrictions in mind.
As
a result, establishing an approximate timeline for when SARS-CoV-2 first
infected humans is difficult. Government officials and public health
authorities in the PRC have claimed that there were no SARS-CoV-2 cases before
early December 2019.6
However,
available epidemiologic evidence strongly suggests that SARS-CoV-2 began
infecting humans in Wuhan or the surrounding area between mid-October and early
to mid-November 2019.7
While
precedent of previous outbreaks of human infections from contact with animals
favors the hypothesis that a natural zoonotic spillover is responsible for the
origin of SARS-CoV-2, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 that resulted in the COVID-19
pandemic was most likely the result of a research-related incident. This
conclusion is not intended to be dispositive. The lack of transparency from
government and public health officials in the PRC with respect to the origins
of SARS-CoV-2 prevents reaching a more definitive conclusion. Should additional
information be made publicly available, and subject to independent
verification, it is possible that these conclusions would be subject to review
and reconsideration.
Section
I
Analysis
of Natural Zoonotic Origins Hypothesis
Zoonotic
spillovers, in which animal diseases cross the species barrier and infect
humans, are a well-known, well-documented natural phenomena.8
By
some estimations, natural zoonotic spillovers are responsible for 60 to 75
percent of emerging diseases in humans.9
Coronaviruses,
to which SARS-CoV-2 belongs, are a large family of viruses that cause disease
in a variety of domestic and farmed animals and have been responsible for
previous outbreaks of new diseases in humans.10
All
coronaviruses known to infect humans are the result of natural zoonotic
spillover from animals into humans.11
Two
recent and prominent examples include Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
(“SARS”) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (“MERS”), both of which are
caused by a coronavirus (“SARS-CoV” and “MERS-CoV” respectively) leading to
severe respiratory disease in humans. 12
Moreover,
recent infectious disease pandemics, with the exception of the 1977 Russian Flu
pandemic, are believed to have natural zoonotic origins.13
Figure
1: Example of a zoonotic spillover from bats. A: Direct spillover from bat to
humans followed by human-to-human transmission. B: Spillover from a bat to an
unknown intermediate host and then to humans, followed by human-to-human
transmission.14
Natural
zoonotic spillovers are a sequential process.15
In
this process, an animal virus must evolve in order to become a human-adapted
virus. First, a virus infects animals. Second, those infected animals come into
contact with humans (known as the human-animal interface). Third, the virus is
able to infect humans. Fourth, the virus is able to adapt to efficiently
transmit between humans.16
Thus,
a spillover event, in which disease is spread from animal to human, can result
in one of two outcomes—either the pathogen, once transmitted from animals, is
then transmitted from humans to humans, or the pathogen does not spread,
resulting in a “dead-end” spillover. In many respects, once human-to-human
transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was established, the onward human-to-human
transmission of the virus would look similar regardless of whether it
originated from a natural zoonotic spillover or a research-related incident.17
The
natural zoonotic spillover hypothesis is a plausible explanation for how the
COVID-19 pandemic started. There are a number of anomalies in the SARS-CoV-2
outbreak and the early COVID-19 pandemic compared to the emergence of past
natural zoonotic spillovers, most notably the 2002-2004 SARS epidemic.
[Figure
2: Map showing location of known SARS-related viruses most closely related to
SARS-CoV-2 with five most closely related SARS-related coronaviruses to
SARS-CoV-2 within the red box.]18
Based
on the precedent of past natural zoonotic spillovers, if SARS-CoV-2 is the
result of a zoonotic spillover, it likely needed to circulate in an
intermediate host to increase the virus’ chances of being able to infect and
replicate in humans.19
Adaptation
during circulation in an intermediate host is believed to have played a
critical role in the emergence of SARS and MERS, as well as other bat viruses,
such as hendra.20
The
identity of SARS-CoV-2’s intermediate animal species remains unknown.21
If
such an intermediate animal species exists, where these intermediate species
came into contact with and first infected humans is also unknown.22
While
it is likely that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a bat virus, most likely one found
in horseshoe bats residing in Southern China or Southeast Asia, it remains
unknown how SARS-CoV-2 traveled more than 1,000 miles from Southern China or
Southeast Asia before emerging in Wuhan.23
Almost
three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began there is still no evidence of an
animal
infected
with SARS-CoV-2, or a closely related virus, before the first publicly reported
human COVID-19 cases in Wuhan in December 2019.24
a. Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak
Differs from Previous Natural Zoonotic Spillovers
Most
recent natural zoonotic spillovers of respiratory viruses with pandemic
potential have left behind evidence of where and how they occurred.25
Failed
inter-species transmissions, or “dead-end” spillovers, typically leave behind
serological evidence in the form of antibodies in humans and animals that were
exposed and infected but did not effectively transmit the virus to others.26
Failed
transmissions also typically leave behind genetic evidence at the animal-human
interface.27
Like
interspecies transmission, human-to-human transmission also leave behind
epidemiological evidence. The SARS epidemic saw at least five independent
spillovers of the SARS virus into humans that then spread the virus to other
humans, with other spillovers likely going unidentified and failing to cause
sustained chains of transmission.28
These
spillovers occurred across multiple geographically distant live animal markets
in Guangdong Province, China over a period of several months in 2002-2003.29
Late-2003
to 2004 also saw isolated outbreaks of human SARS cases caused by additional
independent spillovers of the virus.30
Within
six months of the start of the 2002-2004 SARS epidemic, intermediate host animal
species candidates were identified, and numerous animals infected with SARS
were found soon after the outbreak was identified.31
In
addition, early SARS virus samples retrieved from infected humans contained
genetic mutations that reflected its period of circulation and adaptation in
palm civets, the intermediate species.32
SARS-CoV-2’s
emergence also contrasts with outbreaks of human cases of Avian Influenza H7N9
in 2013. Like the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak, H7N9 started with multiple
independent introductions of the virus into humans across multiple locations,
even though the total number of human infections numbered less than 500.33
Geographically
disparate, independent spillovers imply that H7N9 Avian Influenza had
circulated in bird populations for some time and across several provinces in
China before the first known human infections. This is in contrast to the lack
of geographically disparate cases of early COVID-19 cases in Hubei or China.34
The
occurrence of natural zoonotic spillovers is also determined in part by
probability. The frequency with which humans are exposed to an intermediate
animal species infected with a zoonotic viral agent “is likely to be an
important determinant in disease emergence.” 35
This
makes poorly regulated live animal markets in China and Southeast Asia
effective conduits of zoonotic diseases. 36
The
crowded conditions at these live animal markets mean that different members of
multiple animal species that ordinarily would not come into contact are placed
in close proximity to each other and large numbers of humans. These animals are
often in poor health and shed viruses.37
2002-2003
SARS-CoV
2019
Avian Influenza A H7N9
[Figure
3: Comparison of Early Outbreaks of SARS-CoV and Avian Influenza H7N9].
[Left:
Map showing geographic distribution of SARS outbreak in Guangdong Province with
dates of independent outbreaks of SARS from Nov. 2002 to Jan. 2003].38
[Right:
Map of confirmed human cases of avian influenza A (H7N9) from Feb. 19, 2013 to
April 29, 2013].39
[Figure
4: Map showing geo-temporal spread of COVID-19 in China from Dec. 31, 2019 to
Feb. 11, 2020, starting only in Wuhan].40
A
number of epidemiologists and virologists – and, at first, the Chinese
government – have asserted that the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a natural
zoonotic transmission occurring at the Huanan Seafood Market.41
Government
officials in China have subsequently also postulated the theory that SARS-CoV-2
arrived in China on the surface of imported frozen seafood or was brought into
China by infected people or animals after being created by the U.S. military.
Support for these alternative theories is limited to government-controlled
publications in China and is not credible absent independent corroboration.42
Two
key facts bolster the natural zoonotic origin argument. First, approximately 33
percent of the earliest known human COVID-19 cases (with symptom onset dates in
mid- to late-December 2019) were associated with the Huanan Seafood Market in
Wuhan.43
Second,
a number of animal species susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 were sold alive and in
poor animal welfare conditions at the market.44
However,
there is no published genetic evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in
animals prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.45
Additionally,
the genomes of early COVID-19 cases did not show genetic evidence, in the form
of adaptive mutations that SARS-CoV-2 recently circulated in another animal
species other than humans.46
Moreover,
the genetic similarity between the environmental samples and human viral
samples supports the likelihood that the virus found at the Huanan Seafood
Market was shed by infected humans, rather than by infected animals.47
There
also do not appear to have been subsequent spillovers of the virus that
generated sustained transmission in humans, or any other independent spillovers
of SARS-CoV-2, from the intermediate host animal(s) to humans since the
pandemic started.48
It
is also noteworthy that the earliest variants of SARS-CoV-2 were well-adapted
for human-to-human transmission.49
[Figure
5: Spatial distribution of Weibo social media platform users who used COVID-19
assistance channel, a web application people searched when looking for flu-like
symptoms, from Dec. 20, 2019 to Jan. 18, 2020,
overlaid
with location of Huanan Seafood Market and Wuhan Institute of Virology’s campus
in central Wuhan. (Adapted from: Peng, Z., Wang, R., Liu, L., & Wu, H.
(2020). Exploring Urban Spatial Features of COVID-19 Transmission in Wuhan Baed
on Social Media Data. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 9(6),
402.
MDPI
AG. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9060402).]
These
facts represent a significant break from the precedent of other zoonotic
spillovers involving respiratory viruses, such as MERS and SARS. Relevant past
zoonotic spillovers are those involving respiratory viruses that, like
SARS-CoV-2, spread primarily through aerosols. Relatively recent spillovers
involving live animal markets in urban areas are also relevant. Isolated
spillovers of viruses in rural areas involving a small number of human
infections have less precedential value, as do viruses that transmit primarily
through close physical contact or are vector-borne. Accordingly, the SARS
epidemic, the emergence of MERS, and several outbreaks of avian-influenzas have
greater precedential value than viruses
like
monkeypox, Zika, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), or Ebola, because the
viruses and the circumstances of their emergence are more similar to that of
SARS-CoV-2.
Early
SARS-CoV-2 variants had little genetic diversity and were closely related to
each other, differing by only two nucleotides out of approximately 29,900
nucleotides.50
The
fact that only two early variants of the virus have been identified indicates
the virus had not been circulating widely or for a long period of time, and
hence had little opportunity to mutate and cause new viral variants.51
This
also suggests that SARS-CoV-2 spilled over into humans only once or twice over
an approximately two week period, and that these one to two spillovers resulted
in sustained human-to-human transmission.52
This
successful spillover also only appears to have occurred in Wuhan or closely
surrounding areas.53
Understanding
the epidemiology of the outbreak is difficult, as the earliest known COVID-19
cases are unlikely to be the first humans actually infected with SARS-CoV-2.54
The
earliest identified COVID-19 cases, reported by PRC government officials, have
a symptom onset date of December 8, 2019.55
A
majority of epidemiological modeling indicates that SARS-CoV-2 spilled over
into humans between mid-October and early to mid-November 2019.56
These
early Wuhan cases seeded the virus in Wuhan as SARS-CoV-2 spread from person to
person after the initial spillover event(s).57
The
PRC has reported finding no retrospective evidence of COVID-19 cases in October
or November 2019.58
However,
retrospective case searches by PRC public health authorities were limited to
individuals requiring medical treatment.59
As
a result, the PRC’s retrospective case search likely missed between 80 to 95
percent of all COVID-19 cases, which were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.60
Undercounting
of early COVID-19 cases is also likely due to China’s restrictive case
definitions which initially required not only severe COVID-19 symptoms, but a
link to the Huanan Seafood Market.61
It
is estimated that during the period from mid-January to early March 2020,
China’s case definitions did not account for approximately 200,000 COVID-19
cases.62
b. Missing Evidence of a Natural Zoonotic
Spillover
Environmental
samples collected between January and March 2020 at the Huanan Seafood Market
from countertops, fridges, gloves, and other surfaces tested positive for
SARS-CoV-2.63
According
to presentations made to the World Health Organization (WHO) by PRC government
officials and scientists in early 2020, none of the animals at the market when
it was closed, in the market’s supply chain, or in China’s animal farming
industry were infected with SARS-CoV-2.64
That
would be a significant variation from multiple precedents from previous natural
zoonotic spillovers. For example, the discovery of infected palm civets during
the SARS epidemic, and infected chickens and other farmed birds during multiple
outbreaks of avian influenza, indicate a pattern where infected animals are
expected to be present at the location of zoonotic spillovers and in the
related supply chains. 65
[Figure
6: Animal species found to be naturally infected with SARS-CoV-2. Arrows show
route of transmission. Red box highlights mink as the only animal known to have
transmitted SARS-CoV-2 back to humans].66
Cases
of human-to-animal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 have led to the identification of
a number of mammal species susceptible to the virus that were sold at the
Huanan Seafood Market, including mink, foxes, and raccoon dogs. 67
Of
these, mink is the only industrially farmed animal identified to have
transmitted SARS-CoV-2 from animals to humans with documented cases of farm
workers being infected with mink-specific SARS-CoV-2 variants.68,69
China
is the world’s largest producer of farmed mink, raccoon dogs, and foxes.70
Animal
welfare conditions on these farms are poor and present an ideal environment for
the spread and zoonotic spillover of SARS-CoV-2.71
Scientists
expect, because of SARS-CoV-2’s ability to infect multiple species, that
SARS-CoV-2 will likely become endemic in a number of wild animal populations,
including mink, deer, and foxes.72
However,
PRC officials still have not reported a single SARS-CoV-2 infection in its
farmed or wild mink, raccoon dog, or fox populations.73
PRC
officials and scientists have also reported to the WHO that they have not found
a single instance of an animal infected with SARS-CoV-2 prior to the COVID-19
pandemic.74
c. Problems with the Natural Zoonotic
Hypothesis
Based
on precedent and genomics, the most likely scenario for a zoonotic origin of
the COVID-19 pandemic is that SARS-CoV-2 crossed over the species barrier from
an intermediate host to humans.75
However,
the available evidence is also consistent, perhaps more so, with a direct
bat-to-human spillover. Both scenarios remain plausible and, in the absence of
additional information, should be considered equally valid hypotheses.76
However,
nearly three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, critical evidence that
would prove that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 pandemic
was caused by a natural zoonotic spillover is missing.
As
described in this report, the following facts and gaps in information are
reasons why the natural zoonotic hypothesis is unlikely to explain the origins
of SARS-CoV-2:
• The intermediate host species for
SARS-CoV-2, if one exists, remains unidentified. By comparison, within six
months of the first known human case of SARS, public health officials in China
found SARS infections in palm civets and raccoon dogs in live animal markets in
Guangdong Province.77
• Unlike SARS, the genomes of early
COVID-19 cases from the first months of the pandemic do not show genetic
evidence of SARS-CoV-2 having circulated in another animal species other than
humans. None of the animals tested from the Huanan Seafood Market’s supply
chain, or in China’s animal farming industry were infected with SARS-CoV-2,
according to presentations by PRC officials to the WHO.78
• SARS-CoV-2’s high binding affinity
for human ACE2 receptors suggests that it is possible for it to directly infect
humans without needing a period of adaptation in an intermediate host.79
Direct
spillover from a bat would explain the failure to find an intermediate host.80
While
direct bat-to-human spillover of coronaviruses has never been confirmed to
cause a human outbreak, it is theoretically possible and there is
circumstantial evidence suggesting it may occur under limited specific
circumstances.81
• Based on the available evidence,
Wuhan is the only location where SARS-CoV-2 spilled over into humans. 82
After
the unidentified source transmitted SARS-CoV-2 to humans, it stopped transmitting
SARS-CoV-2.83
This
is at odds with the precedent of the 2002-2004 SARS epidemic where infected
palm civets continued to transmit the virus to humans and to raccoon dogs.84
If
the COVID-19 pandemic is the result of a zoonotic spillover from an
intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2, the virus would be expected to continue to
circulate in the infected intermediate host population, creating the potential
for additional independent spillovers into humans and other animals.85
• The low genetic diversity of the
earliest SARS-CoV-2 samples suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic is most likely
the result of a single successful spillover of SARS-CoV-2.86
Although
the possibility of two spillover events cannot be ruled out, both the SARS
epidemic and the 2013 avian influenza A (H7N9) outbreaks saw multiple
independent spillovers of those viruses and exhibited much greater genetic
diversity than early SARS-CoV-2 strains.
Based
on this combination of factors, the available evidence appears to be
inconsistent with both historic precedent and the scientific understanding of
how natural zoonotic spillovers of respiratory viruses like SARS-CoV-2 occur.
Ultimately, without increased transparency and publicly available and
reproducible evidence that addresses these missing pieces of evidence, it is
difficult to support the natural zoonotic origin hypothesis for the SARS-CoV-2
outbreak and COVID-19 pandemic.
Section
II
Analysis
of Research-Related Incident Hypothesis
Research-related
incidents at labs in China, the United States, and elsewhere have happened and,
in some instances, resulted in limited human-to-human transmission. For
example, there have been at least six research related incidents involving the
escape of SARS-CoV from high-containment laboratories in China (four), Taiwan
(one), and Singapore (one).87
The
1977 Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic is now widely accepted to have been the result
of research-related incident, most likely a vaccine trial in the Soviet Union
or China.88
In
June 2014, while investigating the unintentional exposure of one its
researchers to potentially viable anthrax during an experiment in one of its
biosafety level (BSL) 3 laboratories, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) discovered that a culture of non-pathogenic avian influenza
was unintentionally cross-contaminated with the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain
of influenza and shipped to a BSL3 U.S. Department of Agriculture laboratory.89
There
were no personnel exposures as a result of this event.
In
short, human errors, mechanical failure, animal bites, animal escapes,
inadequate training, insufficient funding, and pressure for results can lead to
an escape of virulent pathogens, which could, in turn, infect animals and
humans and lead to a release of a virus from a lab.
a. Coronavirus Research in Wuhan and at
the Wuhan Institute of Virology
In
the aftermath of the 2002-2004 SARS epidemic, Chinese authorities emphasized
research on potential pandemic pathogens, including SARS-related coronaviruses,
to develop vaccines and other medical countermeasures with the goal of
attempting to predict and prevent the next coronavirus pandemic.90
Wuhan
is a global hub of coronavirus research. The Wuhan Institute of Virology is
China’s premier coronavirus research institute.91
Although
the WIV’s coronavirus research is best documented because of its collaborations
with western scientists, multiple institutions in Wuhan study coronaviruses
including: Wuhan University, Huazhong Agricultural University, Hubei Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Animal Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Wuhan
Institute of Biological Products, a vaccine manufacturing subsidiary of
state-owned Sinopharm.92
These
institutes operate a number of biosafety level (BSL) 2, BSL3, and animal
biosafety level (ABSL) 3 laboratories. Several of the BSL3 laboratories are
relatively new, having been built only in the last five years. In all,
laboratories are spread out across nine different campuses in Wuhan, with six
hosting BSL3 or ABSL3 laboratories. The WIV is the only institute in Wuhan with
a BSL4 laboratory.93
WIV
researchers and their collaborators undertook large scale virus collection
expeditions to Southern China and Southeast Asia, where bats naturally harbor
SARS-related viruses, on an annual basis from 2004 onwards.94
During
these expeditions, scientists collected bat blood, saliva, and urine samples.95
The WIV collected more than 15,000 bat-related samples around the time the
pandemic began.96 Of these, the WIV had identified more than 220 SARS-related
coronaviruses, at least 100 of which have not been made public.97
[Figure
7: Map of BSL2, 3, and 4 (including ABSL3) laboratories in Wuhan as of December
2019].98
WIV
researchers actively sampled bats in Southern China and mainland Southeast Asia
where the SARS-related coronaviruses most similar to SARS-CoV-2 have been
collected and identified.99
Viruses
collected from these regions are 90.7 to 96.8 percent similar overall to
SARS-CoV-2.100
These
include RaTG13, which was collected by WIV researchers in Yunnan Province.101
RaTG13
is 96.3 percent genetically similar to SARS-CoV-2, and its existence was first
made public only after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, in February 2020.102
Presentations
given by WIV researchers in 2018 show personnel on field expeditions wearing
inadequate levels of personal protective equipment while handling bats.103
Some
personnel are photographed wearing “thin surgical masks and rubber gloves as
they work [to collect bat samples], while others are unmasked with bare
hands.”104
By
contrast, a Wuhan Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC)
scientist, who also regularly conducts bat sampling expeditions, said in a 2019
documentary that “[i]t is while discovering new viruses that we [researchers]
are most at risk of infection.”105
The
CCDC scientist further stated, “[i]f our skin is exposed, it can easily come in
contact with bat excrement and contaminated matter, which means this is quite
risky.”106
Following
field collection, samples were transported to Wuhan where they were screened
for the presence of coronaviruses.107
The
WIV has two campuses, one in central Wuhan, Xiaohongshan, which houses BSL2 and
3 laboratories, and a second, newer campus in Wuhan’s southern suburbs,
Zhengdian, which houses its BSL4 laboratory in addition to a BSL3 and multiple
BSL2 laboratories. Researchers at the WIV then conducted experiments on newly
isolated and sequenced coronaviruses.108
Particular
attention was given to SARS-related coronaviruses that have the ability to bind
to human ACE2 receptors.109
These
viruses were considered by researchers at the WIV to be potential pandemic
pathogens and pose a high-risk for spillover into humans.110
Viruses
were then sequenced and evaluated for their potential pandemic risk.111
The
WIV conducted genetic recombination experiments as part of its coronavirus
research in both BSL2 and BSL3 laboratories.112
The
WIV also conducted transgenic humanized mice experiments to assess the pandemic
potential of SARS-related viruses.113
They
also tested the efficacy of vaccines in these mice and other animal species.
114
These
animal experiments generate highly-infectious aerosols that are “ubiquitous…
and are difficult to detect.”115
There
were concerns about conducting this type of research in a BSL2 laboratory. As
of May 2019, a Chinese CCDC biosafety expert expressed concern about China’s
lack of national BSL2 regulations, recommending that “[m]anipulation of highly
pathogenic microorganisms should be performed in high level biosafety
laboratories namely BSL3 or BSL4.”116
This
research process takes several years, leading to a multi-year gap between
discovery of a virus and completing a paper ready for publication. For example,
a virus genetically similar to SARS-CoV-2, the aforementioned RaTG13, was
collected in 2013 and partially sequenced in 2016.117
The
remaining segments of RaTG13 were sequenced in 2018 and the sequence of the virus
was finally made public in February 2020.118
In
another instance, one WIV graduate student took several years to publish data
that resulted from field collection activities.119
b. WIV Research on SARS-related
Coronaviruses with Pandemic Potential
By
2018, the WIV showed interest in finding SARS-related coronaviruses that used
human ACE2 receptors to enter cells in order to determine whether SARS
antibodies would effectively neutralize those viruses.120
This
research effort is described in a March 2018 grant proposal submitted to the
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) by a consortium of research
entities, including the WIV, led by the U.S.-based non-governmental
organization EcoHealth Alliance. The group proposed to collect and conduct
genetic recombination experiments on SARS-related coronaviruses possessing
specific traits making them “high-risk” for zoonotic spillover into animals and
humans.121
Notably,
the proposal describes the WIV’s intent to search for SARS-related coronaviruses
with potential to bind to human ACE2 receptors and that have naturally
occurring furin cleavage sites in Yunnan Province, China.122
According
to the proposal, if WIV researchers were unable to find a SARS-related virus
with these traits during sampling expeditions, they then proposed to manipulate
the ACE2 receptors of SARS-related coronaviruses to increase binding affinity
to human lung tissue and to insert furin cleavage sites at the same location
where one appears in SARS-CoV-2.123
This
proposal was not ultimately funded by DARPA.
Furin
cleavage sites are known to enhance virulence and increase viral replication in
avian influenza and Ebola viruses. The grant proposal is in line with research
trends in the field of virology in China. In 2015, researchers at Huazhong
Agricultural University in Wuhan inserted an artificial furin
cleavage
site in Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (an alpha coronavirus).124
In
2019, researchers in China inserted a four amino acid furin cleavage site into
Infectious Bronchitis coronavirus that affects poultry.125
The
WIV also received funding from PRC government agencies for research examining
the spillover potential of SARS-related coronaviruses.126
In
an interview with Science, Shi Zhengli, a senior scientist at the WIV and
SARS-related coronavirus expert, disclosed that her term infected civets and
mice that expressed human ACE2 receptors with chimeric SARS-related
coronaviruses.127
The
results of these experiments indicated that SARS-related bat coronaviruses
could infect and cause severe illness in humanized mice.128
The
WIV was later terminated as a sub-grantee by the National Institutes of Health
(NIH) for failing to produce its laboratory notes and other records relating to
these other experiments.129
c. WIV Biosafety and Biosecurity Patents
and Procurements in 2019
Patents
by WIV researchers published in 2018, 2019, and 2020, and procurements made by
the WIV in 2019, indicate that the WIV struggled to maintain key biosafety
capabilities at its high-containment BSL3 and BSL4 laboratories.130
The
following are examples of some of these patents and procurements:
• On April 24, 2019, WIV researchers
submitted a patent for an auxiliary exhaust fan to maintain negative air
pressure gradients in BSL3 and BSL4 high-containment laboratories.131
This
auxiliary fan was designed to prevent loss of negative pressure in the event of
fan control failures, mechanical failures during fumigation, or human error.132
These
exhaust fans also addressed problems fumigating and disinfecting ventilation
shafts and improving penetration of disinfectants into HEPA filters.133
• On August 14, 2019, the WIV issued a
procurement notice for a project involving its environmental air disinfection
system at the WIV’s campus in central Wuhan.134,135,136
The
upgraded disinfection system used vaporized hydrogen peroxide to decontaminate
laboratory surfaces. 137
A
gaseous hydrogen peroxide disinfection system is an effective, less corrosive
means to sterilize a laboratory than formaldehyde and other agents used by WIV
researchers.138
• On September 16, 2019, the WIV issued
a procurement notice seeking consultation for a “central air conditioning
renovation project” at the new Zhengdian campus.139
According
to the U.S. CDC:
[HVAC] system design separates potentially
contaminated laboratory air from areas outside the laboratory by maintaining
the BSL-3/ABSL-3 areas at negative pressure to adjacent areas, by preventing
re-circulation of laboratory exhaust air to other areas of the building, and by
employing special engineering controls that prevent the occurrence of
laboratory airflow reversals to outside the containment boundary.140
• On November 19, 2019, the WIV issued
a sole source procurement request for an air incinerator at the original
Xiaohongshan campus in central Wuhan.141
The
contract for the procurement was to be issued by December 5, 2019.142
Air
incinerators, though expensive to install and operate, were the mainstay of
high-containment air sterilization prior to HEPA filtration.143,144,145
The
procurement stated that the incinerator was needed to sterilize exhaust gas
from an autoclave, and that it would be added to the exhaust pipe after
existing HEPA filters outside the autoclave to incinerate all the media
discharged from within.146
• On December 11, 2019, WIV researchers
filed a patent for a sensor to detect when biocontainment transfer cabinet HEPA
filters had failed or were not operating correctly.147
Experiments
with infected animals often require moving the animals from a BSL3/BSL4
laboratory to a holding facility ABSL3/ABSL4 or transferring them from an
animal holding room to a specific procedure room.148
These
animals create a variety of potentially hazardous infectious aerosols from
urine, feces, fur, and by respiration.149
The
patent states, “when an accident occurs in the transportation process, an
effective monitoring device is not available for judging whether the equipment
is normal or not.”150
• On November 13, 2020, WIV researchers
filed a patent for a disinfectant formulation that improved upon one used in
the Institute’s high-containment laboratories.151
The
patented formulation “[r]educe[s] the corrosion effect to metal, especially
stainless steel material.”152
As
described in the patent, “[l]ong-term use [of the previous disinfectant] will
lead to corrosion of metal components such as stainless steel, thereby reducing
the protection of … facilities and equipment…shorten[s] its service life and
cause economic losses, but also lead to the escape of highly pathogenic
microorganisms into the external environment of the laboratory, resulting in
loss of life and property and serious social problems.”153
The
patent followed a March 2018 study that described WIV researchers using a
disinfectant at a concentration more than three times higher than is
recommended by the manufacturer.154,155
The
licensed U.S. manufacturer of the disinfectant states that “the higher …
concentration, the more corrosive the solution will be.”156
d. WIV Biosafety and Biosecurity Events in
2019
With
the start of operations at the WIV’s new BSL4 laboratory in late-2017 to 2018,
government officials pressured WIV researchers to “leapfrog development” by
conducting cutting-edge infectious disease research that contributed to China’s
national goals for biotechnology.157
Throughout
2019, WIV experts published on challenging biosafety and biosecurity conditions
faced by high-containment laboratories in China, including the WIV.
In
May 2019, the Director of the WIV BSL4 laboratory warned that in
high-containment laboratories in China:
Maintenance
cost[s] [are] generally neglected; several high-level BSLs have insufficient
operational funds for routine yet vital processes. Due to the limited
resources, some BSL-3 laboratories run on extremely minimal operational costs
or in some cases none at all…
Currently,
most laboratories lack specialized biosafety managers and engineers. In such
facilities, some of the skilled staff is composed by part-time researchers.
This makes it difficult to identify and mitigate potential safety hazards in
facility and equipment operation early enough. Nonetheless, biosafety
awareness, professional knowledge, and operational skill training still need to
be improved among laboratory personnel. (emphasis added)158
In
July 2019, China’s National People’s Congress drafted legislation, which later
became law, to strengthen the management of laboratories involved in pathogen
research and improve adherence to national standards and requirements for biosafety.
It specifies that:
[L]ow-level pathogenic microorganism laboratories
shall not engage in pathogenic microorganism experiments that should be
conducted in high-level pathogenic microorganism laboratories…High-level
pathogenic microorganism laboratories engaging in experimental activities of
highly pathogenic or suspected highly pathogenic microorganisms shall be
approved by the health or agriculture and rural authorities at or above the
provincial level. For pathogenic microorganisms that have not been discovered
or have been eliminated…relevant experimental activities shall not be carried
out without approval. (emphasis added)159
Efforts
by the WIV to improve biosafety were hampered by what officials called the
“stranglehold problem,” which meant a lack of access to advanced foreign
biosafety technologies and materials.160
Leadership
at the WIV emphasized during a June 2019 meeting with WIV officials that
addressing the “stranglehold problem” was critical to “pushing forward the
construction and… development of science and technology for the nation.”161
The
WIV’s limited access to key foreign biosafety technologies forced the
researchers to develop biosafety methods and construct equipment to remedy
shortfalls.162
In
July 2019, WIV leadership led a series of internal meetings on problems of
operations in management at the WIV. The deputy director of the BSL4 laboratory
issued a report on biocontainment equipment shortages and the impact of meeting
the research goals of the government.163
The
report cited major problems that existed in the BSL4 laboratory including
“hardware and technological aspects of the laboratory facilities” and “the
management of biosafety.”164
The
same report noted that the Director of the WIV urged the institute’s senior
personnel to “prioritize solving the urgent problems we are currently
facing.”165
On
September 12, 2019 between the hours of 2:00 and 3:00 a.m. local time,166
the
WIV took down its online depository of data on viral sequences called the
Wildlife-Borne Viral Pathogen Database.167
The
database was intermittently accessible from December 2019 to February 2020,
before being permanently taken offline February 2020.168
This
database was previously accessible to the public, with the exception of a
password protected section, which held unpublished sequence data accessible
only to WIV personnel.169
The
WIV had a collection of more than 15,000 samples from bats, from which they had
identified more
than
1,400 bat viruses, including an estimated 100 unpublished sequences of
SARS-related coronaviruses – the genre of coronaviruses to which SARS-CoV-2
belongs.170
More
than three years after it was first disabled, public access to the database has
not been restored.171
On
November 12, 2019, the WIV’s BSL4 laboratory team issued a report on the
achievements of the BSL4 laboratory since it began operations in 2018.172
With
respect to the “stranglehold problem”, the report states that the WIV had
overcome “the three no’s” of “no equipment and technology standards, no design
and construction teams, and no experience operating or maintaining” a
high-containment laboratory.173
The
report continues to say that WIV personnel “brought into reality the ‘three
haves’ of a complete system of standards, a superior team that operates and
maintains [the lab], and valuable experience with construction.”174
This
was achieved by “reinventing” imported equipment to make “the lab construction
satisfy domestic and international standards” and making the French design of
the BSL4 laboratory “conform to the requirements of Chinese construction.”175
The
report also described a high-pressure work environment. “In the laboratory,
they often need to work for four consecutive hours, even extending to six
hours,” the report revealed. “During this time, they cannot eat, drink, or
relieve themselves. This is an extreme test of a person’s will and physical
endurance. This not only demands that research personnel possess proficient
operational skills, but they must also possess the ability to respond to
various unexpected situations.”176
The
November 12, 2019 report suggested a biosafety problem had occurred at the WIV
sometime before November 2019:
Owing to [the fact] that the subject of research at
the P4 lab is highly pathogenic microorganisms, inside the laboratory, once you
have opened the stored test tubes, it is just as if having opened Pandora’s
Box. These viruses come without a shadow and leave without a trace. Although
[we have] various preventive and protective measures, it is nevertheless
necessary for lab personnel to operate very cautiously to avoid operational
errors that give rise to dangers. Every time this has happened, the members of
the Zhengdian Lab [BSL4] Party Branch have always run to the frontline, and
they have taken real action to mobilize and motivate other research personnel.
(emphasis added)177
On
November 19, 2019, seven days after the BSL4 teams’ report was issued, the WIV
hosted a special training session run by a senior Chinese Academy of Sciences
biosafety/biosecurity official who relayed “important oral and written
instructions” from PRC leadership in Beijing to the WIV regarding the “complex
and grave situation facing [bio]security work.”178
At
the same training session, the Deputy Director of the Office of Safety and
Security at the WIV “pointed to the severe consequences that could result from
hidden safety dangers, and stressed that the rectification of hidden safety
risks must be thorough, and management standards must be maintained.”179
Section
III
China’s
Early COVID-19 Vaccine Development Versus the U.S. Operation Warp Speed
Once
the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic became clear, governments around the world
scrambled to accelerate development of a vaccine to prevent death and severe
disease from infection. In order to start vaccine development, researchers
required the complete sequence of the target virus.180
The
full genetic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 was first posted to a global virus database
on January 11, 2020 by a professor in China who acted in violation of PRC
government restrictions on sharing information about SARS-CoV-2. As a
consequence of his action, his laboratory was shut down for “rectification.”181
After
the SARS-CoV-2’s sequence became available, vaccine developers inserted
portions of the viral sequence into cells to produce the proteins that elicit
an immune system response.182
The
cells that produce the proteins are called “constructs” and have to be created
before vaccine development can begin.183
After
the construct is complete, the next developmental steps are preclinical animal
toxicity, safety and efficacy studies, human clinical safety and efficacy
trials, and commercial scale vaccine production.184
Typically,
these steps are done sequentially.185
During
the COVID-19 pandemic, the urgent need for a vaccine resulted in these steps
being done concurrently, which reduced the time spent on each step from years
to a few months.186
However,
while pre-clinical studies and vaccine production can be done simultaneously, each
step has its own timeline to completion that is difficult to compress. For
example, animal studies are designed to last a specific length of time and
cannot be curtailed without compromising the resulting data.187
Similarly,
the time it takes to grow the amount of vaccine needed for phase I trials is a
limiting step, depending on the vaccine platform and scale of production.
a. U.S. Operation Warp Speed
The
companies with candidate vaccines that would later be funded and supported by
Operation Warp Speed in the United States all started vaccine development work
on January 11, 2020 after the public release of the first SARS-CoV-2
sequence.188
While
mRNA vaccine candidates were able to design their vaccine construct in two
days, because mRNA vaccines only need the coronavirus' genetic sequence to make
a vaccine and no virus has to be cultivated in labs, traditional vaccine
platforms take longer.189
The
fastest of the Operation Warp Speed vaccine candidates to enter phase I human
clinical trials among the non-mRNA vaccines was AstraZenca-Oxford’s vaccine,
ChAdOx1.190
The
AstraZeneca-Oxford team leveraged an existing vaccine construct and extensive
experience with it to advance their candidate into phase I human clinical
trials in an unprecedented 103 days.191
Johnson
& Johnson’s vaccine candidate, Ad26, went from sequence to phase I clinical
trials in 185 days.192
As
with AstraZeneca-Oxford, Johnson & Johnson was able to modify an existing
construct it had developed for Ebola, as well as extensive institutional
experience in vaccine development.193
Both
Ad26 and ChAdOx1 were adenovirus vaccines, in which a weakened version of the
virus that cannot replicate is used to stimulate an immune reaction.194
Operation
Warp Speed brought the first COVID-19 vaccines from sequence publication to
regulatory approval in approximately eight months; “[o]ther medical miracles
have been achieved, but few with the speed and success of developing the
Covid-19 vaccines.”195
Operation
Warp Speed accelerated development of COVID-19 vaccines by coordinating with
the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, providing technical assistance, breaking through supply chain and
manufacturing bottlenecks with the Defense Production Act, and de-risking
vaccine development through guaranteed purchase agreements.196
Vaccine
developers ran clinical trials concurrently and on an accelerated timeline. The
lessons learned from Operation Warp Speed have been widely shared, studied, and
publicized, so it can serve as a model for how to quickly mobilize the
government and private sector in response to an emergency.197
b. China’s COVID-19 Vaccine Development
Program
China
also initiated a COVID-19 vaccine development with at least four research teams
involved.198
China
did not initially have a mRNA vaccine candidate.199
Two
of these research teams were from the People’s Liberation Army’s Academy of
Military Medical Sciences (AMMS), with the others from the Chinese Academy of
Sciences (CAS) and the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CCDC).200
The
two AMMS teams reached notable early milestones in COVID-19 vaccine
development. One AMMS team, led by Major General Chen Wei, using the same
adenovirus vaccine platform as AstraZeneca-Oxford and Johnson & Johnson,
went from sequence publication on January 11, 2020 to phase I human clinical
trials on March 18, 2020, a span of only 67 days.201
Figure
8: Comparison of Adenovirus Platform Timelines. Operation Warp Speed Vaccines:
Johnson & Johnson’s Ad26 and AstraZeneca-Oxford’s ChADOx1 compared to
Chen-AMMS’s SV8000
The
second AMMS team, led by Brigadier General Yusen Zhou, was the first to patent
a COVID-19 vaccine on February 24, 2020.202
The
Zhou AMMS team’s patent included data from a mouse experiment showing that the
vaccine construct neutralized SARS-CoV-2 infections.203
Other
researchers in China working with the same vaccine platform took between three
to four months to develop their candidate vaccine.204
The
Zhou AMMS COVID-19 vaccine candidate does not appear to have advanced into
phase I human clinical trials.205
The
Chen AMMS COVID-19 vaccine is commercially produced by CanSino.206
Given
Operation Warp Speed’s success, it is unusual that the two AMMS COVID-19
vaccine development teams were able to reach early milestones in vaccine
development even more quickly. The Chen AMMS team beat AstraZeneca-Oxford to
phase I clinical trials by 38 days. The Zhou AMMS team built and validated the
effectiveness of its COVID-19 candidate vaccine 44 days after the sequence of
SARS-CoV-2 was released. The extremely accelerated vaccines development
timelines achieved by the AMMS teams pose the following two outstanding
questions:
• What additional steps, processes, or
novel techniques did AMMS researchers take that advanced the development of
their vaccine faster than the Operation Warp Speed timeline?
• If no additional steps were taken to
speed up the development timeline, when did researchers in China have access to
the genomic sequence? Was it before January 11, 2020? If so, how far in advance
of January 11, 2020?
Section
IV
Basis
for Assessment that Research-Related Incident is More Likely Origin of
SARS-CoV-2
Nearly
three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, substantial evidence
demonstrating that the COVID-19 pandemic was the result of a research-related
incident has emerged. A research-related incident is consistent with the early
epidemiology showing rapid spread of the virus in Wuhan, with the earliest
calls for assistance being located in the near the WIV’s original campus in
central Wuhan.207
It
also explains the low genetic diversity of the earliest known SARS-CoV-2 human
infections in Wuhan, because the likely index case, would be an infected
researcher, is the likely primary source of the virus in Wuhan.208
A
research-related incident also explains the failure to find an intermediate
host as well as the failure to find any animal infections pre-dating human
COVID-19 cases.209
Although
the WIV’s coronavirus research is best documented because of its collaborations
with western scientists, multiple institutions in Wuhan study coronaviruses
including: Wuhan University, Huazhong Agricultural University, Hubei Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Animal Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Wuhan
Institute of Biological Products, a vaccine manufacturing subsidiary of
state-owned Sinopharm.
a. Coronavirus Research at the Wuhan
Institute of Virology
The
WIV is an epicenter of advanced coronavirus research that was designed to
predict and prevent future pandemics by collecting, characterizing, and
experimenting on “high-risk” coronavirus with the potential to spill over into
humans:
• In the aftermath of the 2002-2004
SARS epidemic, WIV researchers undertook annual virus collection expeditions to
Southern China and Southeast Asia, where bats naturally harbor SARS-related
viruses, from 2004 onward.210
• WIV researchers actively sampled bats
in Southern China and Southeast Asia where the SARS-related coronaviruses most
similar to SARS-CoV-2 have been collected and identified.211
• The WIV had collected more than
15,000 samples from bats, from which they had identified more than 1,400 bat
viruses, including an estimated 100 unpublished sequences of SARS-related
coronaviruses – the genre of coronaviruses to which SARS-CoV-2 belongs.212
The
database containing the sequences of viruses collected by the WIV, including
unpublished SARS-related coronaviruses, was taken offline starting in September
2019.
• Following field collection, samples
were transported to Wuhan, where they were screened for the presence of
coronaviruses.213
WIV
researchers performed animal and human cell-related research using recombinant
genetic techniques with the express goal of discovering human adapted SARS-like
chimeric viruses. The WIV conducted these experiments in BSL2 and BSL3
laboratories.
• Senior coronavirus researcher Shi
Zhengli disclosed that in 2018-2020, her team infected civets and humanized
mice that expressed human ACE2 receptors with chimeric SARS-related
coronaviruses.214
The
results of these experiments have never been published.
• The EcoHealth Alliance NIH grants and
DARPA grant proposals, in partnership with the WIV, humans.215
SARS-CoV-2
shares many of the traits these researchers were interested in finding in
SARS-related coronaviruses or interested in engineering such traits if they
were not found naturally.
b. Evidence of Biosafety Failures at the
WIV
WIV
patents and procurements suggest that the WIV experienced persistent biosafety
problems relevant to the containment of an aerosolized respiratory virus like
SARS-CoV-2.
• April 24, 2019: Auxiliary exhaust patent
• August 14, 2019: Environmental air disinfection system
procurement
• September 16, 2019: Central air conditioning
• November 19, 2019: Sole source procurement for air incinerator
• December 11, 2019: Biocontainment transfer cabinet HEPA filter
failure patent
• November 13, 2020: Disinfectant formulation patent
c. Management and training concerns at the
WIV
Academic
articles, reports, and meetings from the WIV also suggest that the WIV
experienced persistent biosafety problems relevant to the containment of an
aerosolized respiratory virus like SARS-CoV-2:
• In May 2019, the Director of the WIV
BSL4 laboratory warned that in high-containment laboratories in China
maintenance costs were neglected and part-time researchers made it “difficult
to identify and mitigate potential safety hazards in facility and equipment
operation early enough.” (emphasis added) 216
• Leadership at the WIV emphasized
during a June 2019 meeting with WIV officials that addressing the “stranglehold
problem” was critical to “pushing forward the construction and… development of
science and technology for the nation.”217
• In July 2019, the deputy director of
the BSL4 laboratory issued a report on shortages of biosafety equipment and its
impact on meeting the research expectations of the government.218
• In July 2019, China’s National
People’s Congress began the process of drafting the law to strengthen the
management of laboratories involved in pathogen research and improve adherence
to national standards and requirements for biosafety.219
• A November 12, 2019 report suggested
a biosafety problem had occurred at the WIV sometime before November 2019.220
• On November 19, 2019, the WIV hosted
a special training session by the senior Chinese Academy of Sciences
biosafety/biosecurity official who relayed “important oral and written
instructions” from PRC leadership to the WIV regarding the “complex and grave
situation facing [bio]security work.”221
This
one-day training session for senior leadership was followed on November 20-21,
2019 with two days of safety training for personnel from the WIV and other
Wuhan area high-containment laboratories.
d. Anomalies in Epidemiology of SARS-COV-2
Outbreak
• SARS-CoV-2 spilled over into humans
only in Wuhan.222
This
is a break with the precedent of SARS, MERS, and multiple outbreaks of avian
influenza, all of which were much less transmissible than SARS-CoV-2 and
infected fewer animals.
• The low genetic diversity of the
earliest SARS-CoV-2 samples, coupled with one of the two early lineages being
more closely related to bat coronaviruses, suggests that COVID-19 pandemic is
most likely the result of one, or at most two, spillovers of SARS-CoV-2.223
SARS-CoV-2’s
low initial genetic diversity is also a break with the precedent of recent
zoonotic spillovers of respiratory viruses.
• Critical corroborating evidence of a
natural zoonotic spillover is missing. While the absence of evidence is not
itself evidence, the lack of corroborating evidence of a zoonotic spillover or
spillovers, three years into the pandemic, is highly problematic. If the
COVID-19 pandemic is the result of the zoonotic spillover of SARS-CoV-2 in
Wuhan from an intermediate host species, there should be evidence of SARS-CoV-2
circulating in animals before it spilled over into humans. Instead, there is no
evidence that any animal was infected with SARS-CoV-2 prior to the first human
cases.224
Conclusion
As
noted by the WHO Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens,
the COVID-19 Lancet Commission, and the U.S. Office of the Director of National
Intelligence 90-Day Assessment on the COVID-19 Origins, more information is
needed to arrive at a more precise, if not a definitive, understanding of the
origins of SARS-CoV-2 and how the COVID-19 pandemic began.225
Governments,
leaders, public health officials, and scientists involved in addressing the
COVID-19 pandemic and working to prevent future pandemics, must commit to
greater transparency, engagement, and responsibility in their efforts.
Based
on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to
conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a
research-related incident. New information, made publicly available and
independently verifiable, could change this assessment. However, the hypothesis
of a natural zoonotic origin no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt, or
the presumption of accuracy. The following are critical outstanding questions
that would need to be addressed to be able to more definitively conclude the
origins of SARS-CoV-2:
• What is the intermediate host species
for SARS-CoV-2? Where did it first infect humans?
• Where is SARS-CoV-2’s viral
reservoir?
• How did SARS-CoV-2 acquire its unique
genetic features, such as its furin cleavage site?
Advocates
of a zoonotic origin theory must provide clear and convincing evidence that a
natural zoonotic spillover is the source of the pandemic, as was demonstrated
for the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak. In other words, there needs to be verifiable
evidence that a natural zoonotic spillover actually occurred, not simply that
such a spillover could have occurred.
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